曹海斌 摘译自 安迅思新闻
Global crude demand growth to slip in 2019 – OPEC
Initial projections point to global crude oil demand growth sliPPIng in 2019 compared to this year, on the back of weaker economic forecasts and fears that political uncertainty may start to weigh on consumption, oil cartel OPEC said on Wednesday.
Global oil demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.45m bbl/day in 2019 compared to a projected 1.65m bbl/day this year, on the back of expectations of 3.6% global GDP growth compared to an expected 3.8% in 2018.
Crude oil substitution drives in Asia Pacific, slower European demand growth, and lower Chinese consumption are all expected to weigh on forecasts for 2019.
Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 2.1m bbl/day during next year, despite an anticipated slowdown in the pace of US shale-derived oil output, the cartel said.
Petrochemicals and automotive sector consumption are also expected to drive demand next year, although simmering geopolitical tensions may start to impact market sentiment if they continue, which could lead to a negative impact on the global oil sector, according to OPEC.
“If trade tensions rise further, and given other uncertainties, it could weigh on business and consumer sentiment,” OPEC said in its monthly oil report."This may then start to negatively impact investment, capital flows and consumer spending, with a subsequent negative effect on the global oil market,” it added.